[SMM Analysis] Review of the Nickel Ore Market During the 2026 Chinese New Year Holiday and Post-Holiday Outlook

Philippines Market: Seasonal Downturn and Supply Constraints During the Chinese New Year holiday, nickel ore trading activity in the Philippines remained sluggish, with trading volume being scarce. This stagnation was primarily due to Chinese buyers being away during the holiday. Supply side, shipments are still concentrated in the northern regions, while shipments from Surigao and other southern areas remain at low levels. Although port inventory in China dropped slightly, smelter demand for Philippine ore remained weak during the holiday. This weak demand is attributed to the persistently high prices of Philippine nickel ore and the fact that many smelters built up sufficient inventory by the end of last year. Furthermore, the ongoing rainy season, which started in December, continues to impose supply constraints, providing steady upward pressure on prices. These high prices are further supported by increased market uncertainty regarding domestic supply from Indonesia in the coming months. Indonesia Market: Policy Uncertainty and RKAB Quota Constraints In the Indonesian market, participants remain in a "wait-and-see" mode, awaiting the full implementation of RKAB (mining quota) approvals. While several major miners have received approvals, many mines face quotas that are significantly reduced YoY. This trend supports the possibility that the government will enforce a stricter annual RKAB system in the short term, capping the national annual quota at approximately 260 million to 270 million wmt. As a result, many smelters now face urgent ore shortages, with only a few enterprises having sufficient inventory to sustain long-term operations. Although the domestic trade benchmark price (HPM) dropped slightly by 0.58% to $17,670/mt Ni in the second half of February due to the holiday impact, considering that the current rainy season in Indonesia persists in some regions, the approaching Ramadan will further limit production efficiency, and government approval uncertainties continue to block supply increases, the market generally expects that RKAB approval obstacles will be difficult to resolve in the short term. Intertwined with these multiple bullish factors, domestic Indonesian nickel ore prices and premiums are likely to show an upward trend.